Over the last several weeks of play with four or more groups of players each event I collected data with the help of others in terms of the positioning of higher hcp players on par 4's as they progress to the hole. The reason for the analysis was the lower hcp players contend the higher cap players get too many needless strokes which impact Skins games. I know....this is a common complaint that will never end....but do they have a valid point?
On average, the 16-18 hcp players hit 210 yard drives. The average par 4 from the tees they play is roughly 360 yards. Thus the 16-18 hcp player, because they get a stroke on nearly every hole, or all holes (18 cap), are essentially playing 150 yard par 4's (360 total yards minus their 210 drive), or to score a gross 5, net 4.
The >18 hcp players hit their drives an average of 190 yards. From their tees, the average par 4 yardage was around 335. Therefore they were playing 145 yard par 4s (to make a net par). However, on some holes some got two strokes, and their 2nd shots typically landed within 60 or less yards of the pin. Thus, on one or more par 4 holes, the 18+ cap player is effectively playing a 60 yard par 4 to make net par (6 net 4). From that viewpoint it's kind of crazy...right? LOL.
The lower cap guys said the long game, like hitting driver / 3W, low loft hybrids, etc, do require more athleticism to get the ball down the fairway. However, then they asked how much athleticism is needed to hit a 150 yard shot? Moreover, how much athleticism is required to hit a 100, 60, 40, 20 yard shot? Beyond that, how much athleticism is required for a 10 yard pitch shot, or worse, putting? So why aren't the higher cappers able to improve upon those shots?
We also found that higher cap players got into significantly more trouble on their 2nd shots which landed in rough, bunkers, or other difficult lies. Thus, they lacked a sense of course management because they laser the pin at 150 yards, pull out a 150 yard club, and have at it, and the ball has a much greater chance of missing the green, getting into more trouble. Then they're left with shots they rarely, or barely practice.
Thus, the lower handicap players (1-9) believe the higher cap players have "no excuse" to not practice and improve upon their short games because those shots do not require athleticism. We see it all the time....20 yard pitch shot goes 5 yards, or is bladed 30 yards off the green. 40 foot putt travels 55 feet, then the comeback putt is 6 feet short.
Also, the lower handicap players believe the handicap system actually rewards not practicing the most unathletic shots, lack of course management, and highly random putting. It seems they might have a valid point. And just yesterday a 24 hcp player scored pars on 3 holes, scoring 4 net 2's, or Eagles, to win 3 skins. And worse, two guys with a gross birdies lost those holes. LOL.
I did a random sample of 5 guys asking them what their score would be if a pro took over after their initial two shots on par 4s and 5s, played the easier par 3s, and putted all putts. Here's the responses with current handicap and their estimates:
1 - 88, 74, -14
2 - 81, 70, -11
3 - 92, 74, -18
4 - 89, 75, -14
5 - 84, 72, -12
Avgs: 86.8, 73, -13.8.
13.8 strokes is a lot of strokes to give away on 2 par 3s along with their short game and putting. But I'm pretty sure they'll be out on the range tomorrow pounding 7 irons, hybrids, and drivers, and complain about not breaking "X". LOL.
I put up this thread to be thought provoking because as one guy commented the other day, that there's virtually no physical limitation to becoming decently skilled at the short game, and especially putting. Thus a lot of us are giving up strokes without really realizing the impact. Hence the below analysis.
A guy posed an interesting question yesterday at the 19th hole. "What would the score be if a tour pro stepped in and hit all the higher handicap player's short game shots, all par 5 approach shots (3rd shots), played the shorter par 3 holes, and finished off longer par 3 holes for the high capper, and....took over all putting?". Great question.
Based on the higher hcp player data that we collected, they were roughly 12 over on the par 4s, 5 over on the par 3s, and 4.5 over on the par 5s, or a total of 21.50 strokes over par. Now what might happen if the average tour pro stepped in....
Based on a quick online website, the tour pro par saves are around 60%, some more, some less. Assume the pro hits all the par 5 third shots, play 2 shorter par 3's on their own, and finish the high capper's longer par 3 holes, and, putts all putts.
Tour Pro par 4s: Pro finishes off high cap missed green par 4s. 5/8 saves, or 3 over.
Tour Pro par 4s - High Cap hit the green, pro putts out, 2/10 par 4 holes, 0 over.
Tour Pro par 5s: Pro hits 3rd shot to green. 3 pars, one birdie. 1 under.
Tour Pro par 3s: Pro plays <140 yard par 3s, High cap plays >140 yard par 3s, then tour pro takes over for the high capper. Assume a 50/50 split in par 3 holes. Tour pro pars his two par 3s, and finishes 1 over after playing out the high cap par 3s.
Average Tour Pro Score: 3.0 over.
High Cap Score: 21.25 over.
Delta: +18.25 strokes.
What's interesting is most of the shots in the above scenario that would be played by the pro are short game shots, two shorter par 3 iron shots from <140 yards, and 4 par 5 approach shots from around 100-130 yards. And of course, taking over ALL the putting.
Even if not a perfect analysis, it's still an amazing disparity given most of the shots have little to do with driver and longer iron shots.
Well said, @Steven, and nice analogy with the bank!! I think your game will be drawing plenty of interest this season.... 😎
Good analysis from everyone.
I do agree with the point of the fact the higher handicaps probably don't hit the practice facility. Other than hitting a bucket to warm up before a round and chipping and putting again before hitting the 1st tee.
Back when I first started playing back in high school. we were fanatics! Of course we had all kinds of time.
And no we didn't still have wooden shafts!😯😄
For the record I'm listed as a 19 handicap. But have shot 80 twice last year and a couple of 39's with that. Talk about inconsistent! That being said like Bill Parcells use to say you are what your record says your are.
Why am I so excited about this up coming season?
Even though I have in past won the finals in my division?
Because like I said before the revelation of this course.
And this is the BIG FACTOR for anyone getting involved with Saguto Golf is the approach to the system and practice.
Years running have just did like I stated, hit the range with a bucket to get lose never really worked on anything but putting and chipping then on to 1st tee.
This year practice and drills and focus are going to be at least 50% of my regiment.
And with a 19 handicap to start this year that is a advantage at least for the start of the year .
When I teach a totally unrelated course to this here, I use this analogy.
Study and practice is like putting money in the bank.
If you don't put it in now(Practice and Focus) there will be nothing there to withdraw later on!
My thoughts.
A low handicapper should never get in a net skins game. In a large group, the low handicappers should form their own gross skins game. In a group I played with a few years ago we had both a net and a gross skins game. Everyone played in both games.
I have always believed a high handicapper has an advantage against a low handicapper. It is much easier for a high handicapper to have a career round and shoot 5 under their handicap than it is for a low handicapper to shoot 5 under their handicap.
But, that’s the game we play. So it is what it is.
So then the moral of the story is..... If you're a high handicapper and wish to regularly be in the skins money, stay away from SagutoGolf in order to preserve the high handicap??.....😆
Amazingly detailed analysis!